Analysis of report
Summary:
basically hurco is a company dealing with laser welding of steel parts. it reported a 97% drop in revenue in Q1, and has continued to post losses in this quarter. Looking forward, it has large stocks of uncleared inventory, poor future sales bookings for the next quarter, and a decrease in sales worldwide.
Recession is still at hand. My dad just told me last night that a friend owning a 500m steel manufacturing plant had to liquidate his assets due to unprofitability in this climate, and unrelenting lack of orders amidst an unabating recession...i guess HURCO's performance proves him right.
Still, fundamentally hurco has large reserves, huge book value and asset value per share, no debt, and moderate free cash on hand. I have a 3% position of hurco in my portfolio, and i will continue to hold out for the next 2-3 years.
Saturday, May 30, 2009
Singapore government bond yields for year to date
| SGS Prices and Yields - Benchmark Issues (2005 to 2007) |
| Jan 2009 to Nov 2009 (Monthly) New Query |
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
* Data reflects bid rates quoted by SGS Primary Dealers to each other based on standard market lot transactions as specified in the Rules and Market Practices of the SGS Market. Prices quoted to non-Primary Dealers may be different, subject to factors such as transaction size and administrative costs.
* Figures before 2000 are the modes of closing bid prices quoted by SGS primary dealers.
* Figures after 2000 are the average of closing bid rates quoted by SGS primary dealers.
* Overnight repo rates are closing offer rates quoted by SGS primary dealers.
* Yield is quoted as % p.a.
* Price is quoted in S$ per $100 of principal amount.
Friday, May 29, 2009
S&P is dangerously high
link to a very all-encompassing article: 18 reasons why we'll pull back from current levels
buoyed by a series of good news amongst the bad...people are diligently ignoring the fact that unemployment is still rife, bad loans still have yet to be repaid, huge organisations are going bankrupt, and housing sales are still dire.
consumer confidence cycle of death:
increasing stock prices boost wealth, boosting consumer confidence. government releases increased consumer confidence index, further boosting stock prices, and the cycle continues.
S&P is still soaring, after the consumer index was released...its due for a correction any time soon.
might be time to start selling...
buoyed by a series of good news amongst the bad...people are diligently ignoring the fact that unemployment is still rife, bad loans still have yet to be repaid, huge organisations are going bankrupt, and housing sales are still dire.
consumer confidence cycle of death:
increasing stock prices boost wealth, boosting consumer confidence. government releases increased consumer confidence index, further boosting stock prices, and the cycle continues.
S&P is still soaring, after the consumer index was released...its due for a correction any time soon.
might be time to start selling...
Thursday, May 28, 2009
intelligent investor review 1 - a bull market
a bull market is characterized by:
1)a historically high price level
2)high price/earnings ratios
3)low dividend yields as against bond yields
4)much speculation on margin
5)many offerings of new common-stock issues of poor quality.
1)a historically high price level
2)high price/earnings ratios
3)low dividend yields as against bond yields
4)much speculation on margin
5)many offerings of new common-stock issues of poor quality.
BUYS PRGN
Paragon Shipping.
solid shipping company. 97% of shipping capacity booked for this year, should have no problems bringing in the earnings. 4% dividend.
not sure if its a good time to buy, it just went up 25% after a positive Q1 earnings report.
bought at 5.35, plan to hold out. buy if dips below 5.
WRT yesterday's attempt at market timing, EXM is now up to 10.3, managed to buy it at almost the lowest point yesterday. seems quite overvalued now, but i'm back to a neutral position had i bought and held before i sold. will hold out more for it. 67% shipping capacity booked this year, not as promising as i'd like it to be.
These buys put my drybulk shipping holding size to 12% of my total portfolio or 20% of my active holdings.
solid shipping company. 97% of shipping capacity booked for this year, should have no problems bringing in the earnings. 4% dividend.
not sure if its a good time to buy, it just went up 25% after a positive Q1 earnings report.
bought at 5.35, plan to hold out. buy if dips below 5.
WRT yesterday's attempt at market timing, EXM is now up to 10.3, managed to buy it at almost the lowest point yesterday. seems quite overvalued now, but i'm back to a neutral position had i bought and held before i sold. will hold out more for it. 67% shipping capacity booked this year, not as promising as i'd like it to be.
These buys put my drybulk shipping holding size to 12% of my total portfolio or 20% of my active holdings.
Wednesday, May 27, 2009
missed a crazy dip...bought at the start of a rally.
consumer index was up ridiculously high,sparking off a rally which hastened my buy cycle.
prices have been dropping nicely since last week, but have seen a jump today since the release of better than expected results.
today's transactions:
EXM
bought at 9.9, below my sell price of 9.95 previously.
gonna hold this till next year, unless it rises too quickly to 12.
today's missed opportunities:
AIB hit a low of 3.10. now at 3.49
GU started out at 2.55, now at 2.75.
various others on my watch list, VMC, UNH, CNI, PRGN, all ended higher than they opened.
its gonna be some time till the next dip, shall wait patiently.
prices have been dropping nicely since last week, but have seen a jump today since the release of better than expected results.
today's transactions:
EXM
bought at 9.9, below my sell price of 9.95 previously.
gonna hold this till next year, unless it rises too quickly to 12.
today's missed opportunities:
AIB hit a low of 3.10. now at 3.49
GU started out at 2.55, now at 2.75.
various others on my watch list, VMC, UNH, CNI, PRGN, all ended higher than they opened.
its gonna be some time till the next dip, shall wait patiently.
Tuesday, May 26, 2009
lesson today: SET A TARGET PRICE AND KEY IT IN
AIB
LOW: 3.12
my target: 3.20.
MISSED
EXM
LOW 9.91
my target: 9.90
would not have hit.
PRGN
LOW: 5.2
my target: 5.00
would not have hit.
nonetheless: KEY IT IN BEFORE HAND
LOW: 3.12
my target: 3.20.
MISSED
EXM
LOW 9.91
my target: 9.90
would not have hit.
PRGN
LOW: 5.2
my target: 5.00
would not have hit.
nonetheless: KEY IT IN BEFORE HAND
Saturday, May 23, 2009
BUYS ATVI and AIG
ATVI dropped 3% to 11.00, bought more.
AIG dropped 9% to 1.66, bought more.
AIB is still shooting up. Apparently it follows the European markets and is independent of dow and S&P. Shall re enter AIB at 3.35, if ever it drops so low again, sigh.
GU is hovering at 2.65, i will get more when it drops below 2.6.
EXM didnt rise as much as i expected, sort of tamed down to 10.3 after the spike to 11. Will reenter when it goes below 10.
Looking at vulcan.
Need to do more research to find more suitable positions.
AIG dropped 9% to 1.66, bought more.
AIB is still shooting up. Apparently it follows the European markets and is independent of dow and S&P. Shall re enter AIB at 3.35, if ever it drops so low again, sigh.
GU is hovering at 2.65, i will get more when it drops below 2.6.
EXM didnt rise as much as i expected, sort of tamed down to 10.3 after the spike to 11. Will reenter when it goes below 10.
Looking at vulcan.
Need to do more research to find more suitable positions.
Friday, May 22, 2009
SELLS OFF WINNERS, FEELS EXTREMELY STUPID
AIB SOLD AT 3.35. NOW AT 4.
EXM SOLD AT 9.95. NOW AT 11.
WHERE HAS MY POLICY OF NOT SELLING TILL THERE'S A CHANGE IN COMPANY FUNDAMENTALS GONE!!!???
now to resist the urge of buying into the euphoria. DO NOT BUY.
EXM SOLD AT 9.95. NOW AT 11.
WHERE HAS MY POLICY OF NOT SELLING TILL THERE'S A CHANGE IN COMPANY FUNDAMENTALS GONE!!!???
now to resist the urge of buying into the euphoria. DO NOT BUY.
Wednesday, May 20, 2009
intrepid investing...the month in review. APR 14 to MAY 20 2009
summary:
the month started out rocky, was holding on to a 20% loss at one time. held on and it recovered. went into speculation with FAZ. guessed right but didnt sell due to greed, traded it at an 8% loss in the end. did some small trades amounting to a 20% turnover. overall gain is now 7-8% as of writing, with a realized gain of 2%.
breakdown by position:
AIG - america international group
Apr 14, 2009 Buy AIG 1.70
May 7, 2009 Sell AIG 1.98
held: 21 days
change: 14%
speculative buy, sold in the first rally. price is around 1.8-1.9 now.
verdict: good move on the sell. could have been more decisive and sold at 2.05
EXM - excel marine corp
Apr 20, 2009 Buy EXM 7.11
May 19, 2009 Sell EXM 9.95
held: 29 days
change: 38%
current price: 10.5
haha, jokes on me. this received a massive upgrade right after i sold it. i earlier posted that i'd feel happy locking in my profits, but i still feel the pinch.
verdict: i stand by my decision.
NTE - nam tai
Apr 20, 2009 Buy NTE 4.30
May 11, 2009 Sell NTE 4.20
held: 21 days
change: (4%)
current price: 4.3
was a promising company. no debt, produced base materials for LCD screens/other electrical equipment for many major companies like sharp and sony. Q1 results showed strange management trends of not wanted to take deals at lower margins. dividend was canceled. sold it for a loss.
verdict: price may have recovered now, but i believe future growth is limited.
FAZ - direxion financial bear 3x etf
May 7, 2009 Buy FAZ 5.41
May 20, 2009 Sell FAZ 5.05
change: (8%)
current price: 5.17
worst mistakes i've made. this went up to 6.3, but i was greedy and didnt want to just take the 10% gain. 1000 bucks gone.
verdict: don't speculate.
AIB - Allied Irish Bank
Apr 14, 2009 Buy AIB 3.05
still holding.
current price: 3.4
change: 14%
dropped to 2.0 along the way, but i didnt buy any more.
largest bank in ireland. No chance of nationalization. Still in huge debt but in process of restructuring, leaders that got it into this mess are stepping down.
verdict: speculative. should have bought more when it dipped.
GU - gushan environmental energy
Apr 14, 2009 Buy GU 2.72
still holding.
current price: 2.45
change: (8%)
largest biodisel manufacturer in china. took at price hit when q1 results were released, but company is fundamentally sound. no debt, and it increased production capacity even in this downturn.
verdict: should buy more.
NOV - national oilwell varco
Apr 20, 2009 Buy NOV 33.81
Apr 23, 2009 Buy NOV 29.85
Apr 23, 2009 Buy NOV 30.00
still holding.
average price: 30.8
current price: 37.1
change: 18%
had a huge scare when i bought the bulk of this at 30 and 29, my cheque bounced and they wanted to force sell it at 28. so i rushed down to the bank at 6pm and got the EPS settled.
got this recommendation from Motley fools research report. Largest producer of oil-drilling equipment in the USA. I see demand for their products as oil prices increase and more reserves need to be tapped.
verdict: hold, good job on the averaging down.
ATVI - activision blizzard
Apr 20, 2009 ATVI 10.30
still holding.
current price: 11.5
change: 10%
only the greatest game company ever. nuff said.
verdict: should buy more before diablo 3 and starcraft 2 hit.
HURC - hurco companies
Apr 20, 2009 Buy HURC 14.76
still holding.
current price: 15.1
change: 2%
laser welding company. debt free. would see a pick up when manufacturing revives.
verdict: still holding.
OLN - olin corp
May 11, 2009 Buy OLN 12.85
May 11, 2009 Buy OLN 12.66
bought this for the 6% dividend yield. they've been paying out for the past 100 years. solid company that should stand the test of time.
verdict: don't sell.
the month started out rocky, was holding on to a 20% loss at one time. held on and it recovered. went into speculation with FAZ. guessed right but didnt sell due to greed, traded it at an 8% loss in the end. did some small trades amounting to a 20% turnover. overall gain is now 7-8% as of writing, with a realized gain of 2%.
breakdown by position:
AIG - america international group
Apr 14, 2009 Buy AIG 1.70
May 7, 2009 Sell AIG 1.98
held: 21 days
change: 14%
speculative buy, sold in the first rally. price is around 1.8-1.9 now.
verdict: good move on the sell. could have been more decisive and sold at 2.05
EXM - excel marine corp
Apr 20, 2009 Buy EXM 7.11
May 19, 2009 Sell EXM 9.95
held: 29 days
change: 38%
current price: 10.5
haha, jokes on me. this received a massive upgrade right after i sold it. i earlier posted that i'd feel happy locking in my profits, but i still feel the pinch.
verdict: i stand by my decision.
NTE - nam tai
Apr 20, 2009 Buy NTE 4.30
May 11, 2009 Sell NTE 4.20
held: 21 days
change: (4%)
current price: 4.3
was a promising company. no debt, produced base materials for LCD screens/other electrical equipment for many major companies like sharp and sony. Q1 results showed strange management trends of not wanted to take deals at lower margins. dividend was canceled. sold it for a loss.
verdict: price may have recovered now, but i believe future growth is limited.
FAZ - direxion financial bear 3x etf
May 7, 2009 Buy FAZ 5.41
May 20, 2009 Sell FAZ 5.05
change: (8%)
current price: 5.17
worst mistakes i've made. this went up to 6.3, but i was greedy and didnt want to just take the 10% gain. 1000 bucks gone.
verdict: don't speculate.
AIB - Allied Irish Bank
Apr 14, 2009 Buy AIB 3.05
still holding.
current price: 3.4
change: 14%
dropped to 2.0 along the way, but i didnt buy any more.
largest bank in ireland. No chance of nationalization. Still in huge debt but in process of restructuring, leaders that got it into this mess are stepping down.
verdict: speculative. should have bought more when it dipped.
GU - gushan environmental energy
Apr 14, 2009 Buy GU 2.72
still holding.
current price: 2.45
change: (8%)
largest biodisel manufacturer in china. took at price hit when q1 results were released, but company is fundamentally sound. no debt, and it increased production capacity even in this downturn.
verdict: should buy more.
NOV - national oilwell varco
Apr 20, 2009 Buy NOV 33.81
Apr 23, 2009 Buy NOV 29.85
Apr 23, 2009 Buy NOV 30.00
still holding.
average price: 30.8
current price: 37.1
change: 18%
had a huge scare when i bought the bulk of this at 30 and 29, my cheque bounced and they wanted to force sell it at 28. so i rushed down to the bank at 6pm and got the EPS settled.
got this recommendation from Motley fools research report. Largest producer of oil-drilling equipment in the USA. I see demand for their products as oil prices increase and more reserves need to be tapped.
verdict: hold, good job on the averaging down.
ATVI - activision blizzard
Apr 20, 2009 ATVI 10.30
still holding.
current price: 11.5
change: 10%
only the greatest game company ever. nuff said.
verdict: should buy more before diablo 3 and starcraft 2 hit.
HURC - hurco companies
Apr 20, 2009 Buy HURC 14.76
still holding.
current price: 15.1
change: 2%
laser welding company. debt free. would see a pick up when manufacturing revives.
verdict: still holding.
OLN - olin corp
May 11, 2009 Buy OLN 12.85
May 11, 2009 Buy OLN 12.66
bought this for the 6% dividend yield. they've been paying out for the past 100 years. solid company that should stand the test of time.
verdict: don't sell.
Tuesday, May 19, 2009
EXM sold @ 38% gain after transaction fees.
its risen too high too fast in anticipation of earnings results. i'm happy with the gains, although its just a 5% stake in my portfolio (15% is burning in FAZ). the potential upside does not outweigh the downside, so i'm selling. It might still rise, but i'll still be sitting tight with my gains locked in.
Monday, May 18, 2009
Friday, May 15, 2009
GU files earning report
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Gushan-Environmental-Energy-prnews-15256254.html?.v=1
sounds bleak, revenues down, negative earnings per share. but production is increasing and no debt, large cash on hand. poised for the recovery?
i'll average down if price drops below 2.
sounds bleak, revenues down, negative earnings per share. but production is increasing and no debt, large cash on hand. poised for the recovery?
i'll average down if price drops below 2.
day 5 of FAZ.
bought this kitten at 5.4, a day before the market rallied 6% sending this down 20% to 4.4. i held out this week, price rose handsomely to 6.30 where i could have sold out at a 16% gain. at day 4. it dropped subsequently by 9% to 5.55 at midday today (day 5)
2nd guessing myself here, thinking i should have sold at 6.30.
i'm still holding FAZ, as of writing i believe the current rally is unsustainable and my 5.4 cost basis will net me at least 20% in the long run. my lower sell stop is cost price. upper sell stop at 6.48.
2nd guessing myself here, thinking i should have sold at 6.30.
i'm still holding FAZ, as of writing i believe the current rally is unsustainable and my 5.4 cost basis will net me at least 20% in the long run. my lower sell stop is cost price. upper sell stop at 6.48.
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