transactions for the week

shipping's been doing badly, the hype about recovery of baltic dry shippers has faded. i think i entered too late.

EXM down to 9.36

PRGN management pulled a sucker punch, sneakily "amended" their quarterly to include a 10million share dilution.

jun 11: prgn dropped 10%, i averaged down to 5.05 from 5.35. now its down to 4.65.

fundamentals are still sound, will hold.

jun 11: Oil hit 2009 high of 73. Obviously unsustainable.

Buy: ERY @ 16.2 -> 0.22 higher than 52 week low, which was hit on the same day

jun 12:
Sell: ERY @ 17.6
gain: 8% after commissions

Pullback day!

Major pullback on the energy sector, following reports on surplus oil inventories. Oil prices dropped 4% to end below $66, previously it almost broke 70.

General market sentiment has given way to selling...which means its a good time to buy.

haha...just lost half of all my profits today, down to 5% gain from 12% yesterday.

Dark days for the dollar

source: marketwatch.com
link: dark days for the dollar

excerpt:

some ways to hedge against a falling dollar. this article advises the buying of agricultural commodities. offers a sound word of advice at the concluding paragraph:

In this wild and crazy market, there are three important things you must do: Buy on pullbacks -- don't chase anything, no matter how tempting. Use a protective stop in case this rally gives up the ghost and the bear rears its ugly head again. And use a profit target and don't be greedy -- bag those gains and get out.

what has worked in investing

source: http://www.rationalwalk.com/
link: what has worked in investing

scholarly article on dividend yields

source: http://www.simoleonsense.com/

link: High dividend yield research

HURC releases troubling quaterly report

Analysis of report

Summary:

basically hurco is a company dealing with laser welding of steel parts. it reported a 97% drop in revenue in Q1, and has continued to post losses in this quarter. Looking forward, it has large stocks of uncleared inventory, poor future sales bookings for the next quarter, and a decrease in sales worldwide.

Recession is still at hand. My dad just told me last night that a friend owning a 500m steel manufacturing plant had to liquidate his assets due to unprofitability in this climate, and unrelenting lack of orders amidst an unabating recession...i guess HURCO's performance proves him right.

Still, fundamentally hurco has large reserves, huge book value and asset value per share, no debt, and moderate free cash on hand. I have a 3% position of hurco in my portfolio, and i will continue to hold out for the next 2-3 years.

Singapore government bond yields for year to date

SGS Prices and Yields - Benchmark Issues (2005 to 2007)

Jan 2009 to Nov 2009 (Monthly) New Query

End of Period 3-M Yield 1-Y Yield 2-Y Yield 5-Y Yield 7 Yield 10 Yield 15 Yield 20 Yield 2009 Jan 0.34 0.48 0.74 1.40 1.74 2.07 2.74 3.09 Feb 0.34 0.43 0.66 1.08 1.56 2.06 2.68 3.06 Mar 0.34 0.44 0.62 1.42 1.63 2.03 2.59 2.98 Apr 0.20 0.31 0.40 1.34 1.64 2.04 2.62 3.00 May 0.21 0.33 0.52 1.29 1.75 2.61 3.02 3.27

* Data reflects bid rates quoted by SGS Primary Dealers to each other based on standard market lot transactions as specified in the Rules and Market Practices of the SGS Market. Prices quoted to non-Primary Dealers may be different, subject to factors such as transaction size and administrative costs.
* Figures before 2000 are the modes of closing bid prices quoted by SGS primary dealers.
* Figures after 2000 are the average of closing bid rates quoted by SGS primary dealers.
* Overnight repo rates are closing offer rates quoted by SGS primary dealers.
* Yield is quoted as % p.a.
* Price is quoted in S$ per $100 of principal amount.

S&P is dangerously high

link to a very all-encompassing article: 18 reasons why we'll pull back from current levels

buoyed by a series of good news amongst the bad...people are diligently ignoring the fact that unemployment is still rife, bad loans still have yet to be repaid, huge organisations are going bankrupt, and housing sales are still dire.

consumer confidence cycle of death:
increasing stock prices boost wealth, boosting consumer confidence. government releases increased consumer confidence index, further boosting stock prices, and the cycle continues.

S&P is still soaring, after the consumer index was released...its due for a correction any time soon.

might be time to start selling...

S&P index P/E ratios

S&P index evaluation
S&P P/E ratios

interesting sites, shall elaborate more later

intelligent investor review 1 - a bull market

a bull market is characterized by:
1)a historically high price level
2)high price/earnings ratios
3)low dividend yields as against bond yields
4)much speculation on margin
5)many offerings of new common-stock issues of poor quality.

hit fool rating of 90!

BUYS PRGN

Paragon Shipping.

solid shipping company. 97% of shipping capacity booked for this year, should have no problems bringing in the earnings. 4% dividend.

not sure if its a good time to buy, it just went up 25% after a positive Q1 earnings report.

bought at 5.35, plan to hold out. buy if dips below 5.

WRT yesterday's attempt at market timing, EXM is now up to 10.3, managed to buy it at almost the lowest point yesterday. seems quite overvalued now, but i'm back to a neutral position had i bought and held before i sold. will hold out more for it. 67% shipping capacity booked this year, not as promising as i'd like it to be.

These buys put my drybulk shipping holding size to 12% of my total portfolio or 20% of my active holdings.

missed a crazy dip...bought at the start of a rally.

consumer index was up ridiculously high,sparking off a rally which hastened my buy cycle.

prices have been dropping nicely since last week, but have seen a jump today since the release of better than expected results.

today's transactions:

EXM

bought at 9.9, below my sell price of 9.95 previously.

gonna hold this till next year, unless it rises too quickly to 12.

today's missed opportunities:

AIB hit a low of 3.10. now at 3.49

GU started out at 2.55, now at 2.75.

various others on my watch list, VMC, UNH, CNI, PRGN, all ended higher than they opened.

its gonna be some time till the next dip, shall wait patiently.